Sen. Arlen Specter has switched parties. Yes, that presumably brings the Senate one closer to having the magic 60 votes and a filibuster-proof majority. That awaits only the seating of Al Franken. The assumption that 58 Democratic Senators plus two Independents who caucus with them will always stick together to vote for cloture misses an important aspect of the Democratic Party. It is not monolithic.
The response from remaining members of the Republican Party is emblematic of the party’s inherent problem. Some have taken a “good riddance” approach. Russ Limbaugh suggests that Sen. McCain should also consider leaving. Michael Steele has pronounced Specter’s decision as a self-serving one that simply reflects the political realities in Pennsylvania — a bruising and probably futile primary fight against a hard-core conservative opponent, someone even to the right of former Senator Rick Santorum. While that may be true, it misses an important fact. During the 2008 election cycle, several hundred thousand Pennsylvania Republicans had already left the party, leaving the remaining Keystone State Republicans even more conservative than before and Democrats with a 1.2 million registration advantage. Pennsylvania has been described as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, with Alabama in between. Other wags have nicknamed the south and central parts of the state Pennsyltucky. That may be an exaggeration, but let’s not forget the spectacle of some of its faithful at McCain-Palin rallies. It’s hard to imagine anyone to the right of Rick Santorum, but that is clearly the direction the party is moving.
The two remaining GOP Senators from the northeast — Collins and Snowe of Maine — now find themselves in an increasingly isolated position. Sen. Snowe describes Specter’s move as “devastating” for the GOP. There is no room in today’s Republican Party for moderates.
And therein lies the other aspect to Specter’s switch — and one that will almost certainly be ignored by the party faithful. Specter isn’t the first person to decide that the party no longer represents their ideals, their values, their view of America and the role of government. Arlen Spector is one of millions of former Republicans who have come to believe that the Republican party left them, giving them no choice but to leave. Only 21% of the nation’s electorate identify themselves as Republicans. You can’t win national elections, or even most state-wide elections, representing only 21% of voters.
During last year’s campaign, many voices representing the more moderate portions of the GOP decried the tone of some of the McCain-Palin rallies. Republican stalwarts — at least stalwarts of what many of us remember as the Republican Party — publically endorsed Sen. Obama’s candidacy. And many of those who did worried aloud at the prospect of the Republican Party moving ever more to the right, and thus into a position that would result in it becoming irrelevant.
Today’s Republican Party is anti-tax, anti-government, anti-choice, anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-science, anti-public education, anti-diversity, anti-dissent. It defends torture, defends pre-emptive war, defends corruption at the highest levels of government. It wraps itself in the flag and the Bible, all the while espousing positions that are both anti-American and anti-Christian. It continues to alienate thinking conservatives. Should it continue down that path, its extinction is as inevitable as the Whigs and the No-Nothings. It’s only a matter of time.